On a spinning hard diskThe entry is crossed off the index and the clusters join the free pool. What is written inside them does not budge until another file claims that space. Hold off the writes and your odds stay good.
When the bin is skippedThe Recycle Bin sees none of those, and yet the contents usually survive anyway — on a hard disk, on a memory card, on most USB sticks. Nothing was ever kept safe by the bin. What matters is how the medium releases space.
SSDs: gone means goneOnce TRIM has been sent, the controller empties those cells during its own tidying, normally within seconds, and the brand on the label — Samsung, Crucial, WD — makes no difference at all. After that, nobody recovers them, here or anywhere.
Where a sync client runsA deletion travels between your devices just as dependably as a new document does. Most services keep their own deleted items for around a month, so look there before anything else.